Work in Progress
Spring Frost and Drought Risk for Perennial Crops under Changing Climate Conditions
Climate change is known to have future implications on agricultural output on a global scale. This analysis makes use of a unique longitudinal microlevel data set of Swiss apple orchards to investigate the effects of frost and drought on perennial crops. Many studies estimate the impact of temperature extremes on annual crops. While this has contributed to a better understanding of climate impacts on different crops and their potential in the context of climate change, the analysis of perennial crops has not been sufficiently explored. We empirically estimate the influence of different frost measurements, temperatures, and precipitation on the quantities of different apple varieties. The impact of climate change on agricultural yields will adversely affect farmers' livelihoods. Based on the results of this model, we examine how climate change will affect future agricultural yields, using Swiss climate change projections climate change projections from the EURO-CORDEX ensemble of climate change simulations with different combinations of global (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs). A survey provides information on farmers' adaptation behaviour.
To Adapt or not to Adapt: How Swiss Fruit Farmers respond to Climate Change
Anthropogenic climate change is affecting the characteristics of weather and climate extremes. As a result of warming, the frequency, intensity, and character of many extreme events will also change, in particular for hot days, heat waves, cold waves, and heavy precipitation. Agricultural activities depend on favourable climate conditions and are at risk in a changing climate; therefore, farmers are likely to take a long-term perspective on climate due to its direct impact on their livelihoods. Effective adaptation to and mitigation of climate change requires both an understanding of the causes and impacts of climate change and a willingness to change behaviour. This research project aims at understanding the relationship climate perceptions and adaptation behaviour of Swiss fruit farmers.
On the Interactions between Domestic and International Policy and the Prospects for International Climate Cooperation (with Ralph Winkler and Alessandro Tavoni)
Despite the success of the Paris Agreement, anthropogenic climate change remains one of humanity’s most pressing challenges. Like with previous agreements (e.g., the Kyoto Protocol), we observe little progress in climate change mitigation: in almost all countries, current greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are above their agreed upon pledges and even complying with these pledges will not achieve the acknowledged policy goal of containing the increase of the average surface temperature below 2 °C compared to the pre-industrial levels. The main reasons are the public good characteristic of GHG emission reductions and the absence of a supranational authority that can enforce cooperation. In this project, we employ methods of non-cooperative game theory and experimental economics to contribute to the understanding of the obstacles and prospects of international climate cooperation